Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 107.290118 122.380435 139.274388 159.671259 183.738276 211.363829 245.662842
2026-02-01 84.868032 103.497057 126.104918 155.843621 194.351301 243.107926 310.443558
2026-02-08 70.958424 90.793431 116.319822 152.113802 201.876186 269.930736 372.392065
2026-02-15 61.368643 81.531999 108.712328 148.837775 207.974052 294.251457 434.174292
2026-02-22 57.700789 79.397837 109.950066 157.328861 231.236764 346.216914 547.336727
2026-03-01 52.914926 74.929558 107.061804 158.980364 243.967243 383.722598 645.066353
2026-03-08 49.066159 71.284676 104.779880 160.966793 257.131464 423.731282 755.904577
2026-03-15 45.334770 67.354702 101.505975 160.731073 266.239696 457.937799 863.662900
2026-03-22 43.867830 66.744835 103.318133 169.065475 291.445109 525.874344 1056.782828
2026-03-29 42.263087 65.712711 104.258084 175.897704 314.847907 594.782533 1271.912664
2026-04-05 40.591622 64.380740 104.498595 181.409147 336.480754 664.323123 1509.985510
2026-04-12 38.473281 62.081456 102.792379 182.996970 350.381268 719.965930 1731.294092
2026-04-19 36.185620 59.365204 100.207390 182.835247 361.224243 772.534849 1967.582477
2026-04-26 33.605193 55.919362 95.971652 178.887130 363.286773 805.073980 2159.945749
2026-05-03 31.251383 52.686837 91.826675 174.608174 363.912847 834.276756 2354.078061
2026-05-10 29.192689 49.826186 88.117034 170.771869 364.910901 864.637017 2564.563824
2026-05-17 28.903241 50.219389 90.719103 180.792595 400.892678 998.250400 3196.584674
2026-05-24 27.745682 48.869091 89.733871 182.743916 417.158034 1080.645012 3683.090346
2026-05-31 26.717503 47.685011 88.968948 185.090602 434.890227 1172.366075 4260.208414
2026-06-07 25.518134 46.073824 87.176476 184.812178 445.565549 1245.166778 4799.970896
2026-06-14 25.306878 46.408942 89.493584 194.666737 486.287116 1429.122038 5994.451105
2026-06-21 24.929257 46.373788 91.007362 202.757171 523.723547 1615.130683 7360.575312
2026-06-28 24.432509 46.052383 91.859275 209.291252 557.971099 1802.256413 8912.456531